Based on the analysis of the price difference changes of butadiene in the two core regions of Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang in 2025, the core driving factor is the change in the regional supply and demand relationship. Overall, it shows a trend of "narrow in the first half of the year, may expand in September, and difficult to widen in the fourth quarter".
1、From January to August 2025: The regional price spreads were generally narrow, with May being the only exception
The overall price background: In 2025, the domestic butadiene price will fluctuate and decline. It only rebounded briefly in May due to the easing of tariff policies and the unplanned shutdown of some facilities. After the second half of the month, it will return to a narrow range of fluctuations.
The core features of the price difference: From January to August, the price difference between Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang was relatively narrow for most of the time. The average difference from June to August was only 65 yuan per ton. There was almost no flow of goods between regions, and the consumption was mainly within the region. Only in January-February and May did the price difference remain at a normal level of around 250 yuan per ton.
Supply and demand-driven logic：Shandong market: 2024 will be the region with the largest supply gap of butadiene. However, in 2025, the combined production capacity of 300,000 tons from Sino-British Tianjin Petrochemical and Yantai Wanhua Phase II will be released. Coupled with the supplementation of overseas contracts from downstream manufacturers in the north and Weifang Port, the supply gap will narrow. In May alone, due to the temporary shutdown of the Hengli plant, the supply gap widened, and the price increase exceeded that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, widening the price gap.
In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets: Although the commissioning of ExxonMobil's 270,000-ton facility has increased the input from South China to East China, the downstream production capacity has been gradually released throughout the year, and the supply has not been significantly loose. Therefore, the market still relies on imported sources. The import volume directly affects the price difference - in January and February, there was a large amount of import replenishment and sufficient available volume at ports, putting pressure on prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and causing a large price difference. Since March, the import volume has decreased and the price gap has narrowed. In May, due to the contraction in supply from the north, the price gap widened again.
2.、The price spread may widen in September and it will still be difficult to open up in the fourth quarter.
September price spread expectation: May expand, short-term adjustment in supply flow.
In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang market, the volume of imported goods arriving at ports has significantly increased, leading to greater supply pressure. However, there has been no obvious change in demand, and prices are under pressure.
In the Shandong market, the pressure on spot supply is small. Coupled with the support of some downstream players' National Day stockpiling, there is room for prices to rise. The price difference between the two places may widen, and there will be a temporary adjustment in the flow of goods.
The expected spread in the fourth quarter: It is difficult to widen and will be digested within the zone
In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang market, there is an increase in supply (imports may reach 35,000 to 40,000 tons in a single month, and the cracking unit of Guangxi Petrochemical will be put into trial operation in October), but there is also a decrease (the 160,000-ton unit of Zhenhai Phase II will be under maintenance for two months, and Jinshan Balin is expected to be put into operation in mid-October). Overall, the increase in supply is limited, and the fundamentals can still support the price.